The current state of the EV market - not great, Bob!

Started by Oliver, Oct 09, 2025, 11:08 AM

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Blueprint

Quote from: Oliver on Dec 16, 2025, 08:53 AMThe Lightning is officially dead, as noted in the other thread. Ford has also the an EV full-size van in favor  of a hybrid version of the next Transit.

They are reworking the Lightning into a "Ramcharger", adding an ICE engine to act as a generator. So expect the frunk to go away.

Funny enough, I was picking up a press car yesterday morning and a Ford PR person was there to loan a shiny black '25 Lightning to a winter olympic athlete Ford sponsors.
Current rides: 2024 Mazda CX-90 PHEV GS-L, 2022 Subaru Crosstrek Limited, 1975 Triumph TR6 Teabagger Express


Johnnymac

Quote from: Revelations on Dec 19, 2025, 12:23 PMAdd the ID Buzz to the death list.....
https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/electric-cars/vw-cancels-id-buzz-for-2026-as-dealers-warn-it-might-be-over/ar-AA1SGxkC?ocid=BingNewsVerp
Yeah but we are all supposed to be driving EVs within 9 years...how can such a high demand, super hyped, remake of a legend (VW bus), and have it not be successful?!

Well had they made it with a 2.0L diesel engine with 900kms of range with the exact same styling and a price point of around $50k and these things would be everywhere. 
Past vehicles, 2016 VW Golf R, 2020 VW GLI, 2022 Honda Civic Si

Current vehicle, 2024 Acura Integra Type S

Tortoise

#33
The main reason it didn't sell was the price. I recall the selling price was a lot higher than originally assumed/stated. So, that killed a lot of interest right off the bat. 

The second reason is the abysmal range. It was pretty dumb to release an "adventure vehicle" with such an unusable range.

A PHEV with the 1.5T would have been a great combo.

They also should have been 7/8ths the size. They're massive.

Shame, because I'd love to have one as a family hauler.

Blueprint

Quote from: Tortoise on Dec 19, 2025, 01:49 PMThey also should have been 7/8ths the size. They're massive.

Shame, because I'd love to have one as a family hauler.

The "shorty" version sold in Europe might have been better, but reading 'Murica right was never one of VW's forte.
Current rides: 2024 Mazda CX-90 PHEV GS-L, 2022 Subaru Crosstrek Limited, 1975 Triumph TR6 Teabagger Express

GreatBigAbyss

It must have cost VW a pretty penny to develop this vehicle, only to kill it off a year later.  What a waste.

At least Ford has the F150d development, and all they need to work on was drivetrain tech.  Still massive sunk cost, though.

Johnnymac

Quote from: Tortoise on Dec 19, 2025, 01:49 PMThe main reason it didn't sell was the price. I recall the selling price was a lot higher than originally assumed/stated. So, that killed a lot of interest right off the bat. 

The second reason is the abysmal range. It was pretty dumb to release an "adventure vehicle" with such an unusable range.

A PHEV with the 1.5T would have been a great combo.

They also should have been 7/8ths the size. They're massive.

Shame, because I'd love to have one as a family hauler.
I would still pick a TDI engine over a PHEV from VW.  One they do very well, offer an excellent balance of fuel economy, performance, and reliability.

I don't think a shorter one would sell about the same, if they offered both versions I would assume sales would be stronger but not double the sales.

I love how people say, it's not selling because of the price, no shit, the issue is at the price people want to pay they lose their ass on every sale, even worse than they currently are.
Past vehicles, 2016 VW Golf R, 2020 VW GLI, 2022 Honda Civic Si

Current vehicle, 2024 Acura Integra Type S

Tortoise

Quote from: Johnnymac on Dec 19, 2025, 05:17 PMI would still pick a TDI engine over a PHEV from VW.  One they do very well, offer an excellent balance of fuel economy, performance, and reliability.


I am not sure modern TDIs are all that reliable.  The emissions systems are pretty complex.  I've had ~$3k of warranty work covered by my Dieselgate warranty. Which I guess isn't too bad, but it would erase any fuel savings.

Johnnymac

Quote from: Tortoise on Dec 19, 2025, 06:38 PM
Quote from: Johnnymac on Dec 19, 2025, 05:17 PMI would still pick a TDI engine over a PHEV from VW.  One they do very well, offer an excellent balance of fuel economy, performance, and reliability.


I am not sure modern TDIs are all that reliable.  The emissions systems are pretty complex.  I've had ~$3k of warranty work covered by my Dieselgate warranty. Which I guess isn't too bad, but it would erase any fuel savings.
That's peanuts compared to some of the horror stories of VW group electric vehicles, all of which you would only want to own under warranty.

I have heard there are shops that have tunes and other adjustments for the last gen TDI engines that improve reliability while at the same time improving basically everything but emissions.
Past vehicles, 2016 VW Golf R, 2020 VW GLI, 2022 Honda Civic Si

Current vehicle, 2024 Acura Integra Type S

Oliver

Quote from: GreatBigAbyss on Dec 19, 2025, 03:32 PMIt must have cost VW a pretty penny to develop this vehicle, only to kill it off a year later.  What a waste.

At least Ford has the F150d development, and all they need to work on was drivetrain tech.  Still massive sunk cost, though.

I don't think it's being killed off outside of NA. It's also been on the market for three years (aside from North America) and is on the same platform as a bunch of VW, Audi, and Ford EVs.

Oliver

Quote from: Johnnymac on Dec 19, 2025, 05:17 PMI love how people say, it's not selling because of the price, no shit, the issue is at the price people want to pay they lose their ass on every sale, even worse than they currently are.

Hard to say if they are losing money or not (at least at or near MSRP) in the grand scheme of things. Supposedly VW expects EVs to reach profit margin parity with ICE vehicles next year.

Johnnymac

Quote from: Oliver on Dec 20, 2025, 11:10 AM
Quote from: Johnnymac on Dec 19, 2025, 05:17 PMI love how people say, it's not selling because of the price, no shit, the issue is at the price people want to pay they lose their ass on every sale, even worse than they currently are.

Hard to say if they are losing money or not (at least at or near MSRP) in the grand scheme of things. Supposedly VW expects EVs to reach profit margin parity with ICE vehicles next year.
I would be willing to bet they won't come close to that, otherwise why would they be moving so swiftly away from EVs?
Past vehicles, 2016 VW Golf R, 2020 VW GLI, 2022 Honda Civic Si

Current vehicle, 2024 Acura Integra Type S

Oliver

Quote from: Johnnymac on Dec 20, 2025, 04:21 PM
Quote from: Oliver on Dec 20, 2025, 11:10 AM
Quote from: Johnnymac on Dec 19, 2025, 05:17 PMI love how people say, it's not selling because of the price, no shit, the issue is at the price people want to pay they lose their ass on every sale, even worse than they currently are.

Hard to say if they are losing money or not (at least at or near MSRP) in the grand scheme of things. Supposedly VW expects EVs to reach profit margin parity with ICE vehicles next year.
I would be willing to bet they won't come close to that, otherwise why would they be moving so swiftly away from EVs?

I don't think we can equate VW (potentially?) canceling an EV model in the North American market as moving swiftly away from EVs.

Johnnymac

Quote from: Oliver on Dec 22, 2025, 08:38 AM
Quote from: Johnnymac on Dec 20, 2025, 04:21 PM
Quote from: Oliver on Dec 20, 2025, 11:10 AM
Quote from: Johnnymac on Dec 19, 2025, 05:17 PMI love how people say, it's not selling because of the price, no shit, the issue is at the price people want to pay they lose their ass on every sale, even worse than they currently are.

Hard to say if they are losing money or not (at least at or near MSRP) in the grand scheme of things. Supposedly VW expects EVs to reach profit margin parity with ICE vehicles next year.
I would be willing to bet they won't come close to that, otherwise why would they be moving so swiftly away from EVs?

I don't think we can equate VW (potentially?) canceling an EV model in the North American market as moving swiftly away from EVs.
Not just VW, Porsche is also making a hard left from EVs also.  That's both ends of the VAG spectrum changing directions, looks to me they realized something over the last 2-3 years that has made them rethink going all in on EVs.
Past vehicles, 2016 VW Golf R, 2020 VW GLI, 2022 Honda Civic Si

Current vehicle, 2024 Acura Integra Type S

RRocket

Quote from: Johnnymac on Dec 22, 2025, 04:35 PM
Quote from: Oliver on Dec 22, 2025, 08:38 AM
Quote from: Johnnymac on Dec 20, 2025, 04:21 PM
Quote from: Oliver on Dec 20, 2025, 11:10 AM
Quote from: Johnnymac on Dec 19, 2025, 05:17 PMI love how people say, it's not selling because of the price, no shit, the issue is at the price people want to pay they lose their ass on every sale, even worse than they currently are.

Hard to say if they are losing money or not (at least at or near MSRP) in the grand scheme of things. Supposedly VW expects EVs to reach profit margin parity with ICE vehicles next year.
I would be willing to bet they won't come close to that, otherwise why would they be moving so swiftly away from EVs?

I don't think we can equate VW (potentially?) canceling an EV model in the North American market as moving swiftly away from EVs.
Not just VW, Porsche is also making a hard left from EVs also.  That's both ends of the VAG spectrum changing directions, looks to me they realized something over the last 2-3 years that has made them rethink going all in on EVs.

I agree. Every automaker who were near to "all in" on EVs are rethinking their position.